Insights from Hubbert's carbon pulse curve
Geological reality of Hubbert's curve.
We have finite fossil fuel resources. Yet, our modern lifestyles often blind us to the breakneck speed at which we're burning through them. The Hubbert's Curve, shown in the figure below, offers a stark reminder of our fossil fuel consumption rate when viewed against the backdrop of geological time.
M. King Hubbert, an American geologist who worked in the oil exploration and research division for Shell, is best known for his detailed estimations of global oil reserves. In his 1956 paper, "Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuels," he presented the graph now popularly known as "Hubbert's Curve." His core message was clear: our oil consumption demand will inevitably peak. Therefore, we must prioritize allocating remaining fossil fuels to develop nuclear energy, ensuring a secure, dense, and low-carbon energy supply for the long haul, well before fossil fuel extraction becomes economically unfeasible. The graph underscores the unavoidable trajectory of fossil fuel consumption, while highlighting the conditional nature of nuclear energy's development.
More recently, Nate Hagens, in his "Great Simplification" podcast, characterised Hubbert's Curve as a "carbon pulse." This term captures the essence of how, over the relatively short span of human history, we have experienced a concentrated surge of energy from fossil fuels. This pulse has profoundly shaped our civilisation, bringing about immense material progress through industrialisation, while simultaneously creating unintended consequences such as climate change and pollution. If we consider this carbon pulse an anomaly within the broader context of our species' existence, then the effects of climate change, though unprecedented in our recent experience, become more understandable as a symptom of this rapid energy injection.
Hubbert's Curve is primarily used as an indicator of oil resource availability, not to quantify ecosystem damage from climate change. Despite this, Hubbert's Curve holds a wealth of information, and carefully unpacking its insights is crucial. Doing so will guide us towards making wiser decisions about fossil fuel prioritisation, allocation, and consumption, ultimately safeguarding the well-being of future generations.
Why does the curve peak
As we extract increasing amounts of non-renewable energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), we are forced to venture farther offshore, drill deeper underground, and work much harder to obtain the same quantity of oil. We move away from the "sweet spots" of oil formations, resorting to energy-intensive techniques such as hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling. Eventually, this becomes uneconomical. The rate of fossil fuel consumption inevitably declines, creating the peak we see in Hubbert's Curve. Crucially, this means that the demand for oil peaks before the actual reserves are exhausted.
Our current position on the curve
As this graph shows, we are still on the ascent of Hubbert's Curve, leading to ongoing debate among scientists about precisely when peak consumption will be reached. This uncertainty stems from varying estimates of remaining reserves and differing projections of future consumption. A recent estimate suggests that global crude oil production demand will peak around 2040, as shown in the figure below. It is worth noting that conventional oil demand already peaked in 2019, and we are now pushing extraction rates in other oil classes, such as shale oil and natural gas liquids. It should also be noted that, in reality, the bell curve for oil demand would have jagged edges and/or be skewed (asymmetrical), rather than the smooth, idealised curve from Hubbert's original paper.
The focus on peak oil demand is critical. We must moderate our ascent and ensure the development of renewable energy sources–nuclear, wind, solar, and battery storage–before we reach peak demand. This will help ensure the cost-effectiveness of renewable energy deployment. The descent phase can then be dedicated to system maintenance and the development of a circular economy. Slowing our ascent can be achieved in two ways: by increasing the supply of renewable energy to displace fossil fuels, and by simultaneously reducing our overall rate of energy consumption. We will explore both of these approaches in the next two sections.
Expanding renewable capacity
The rapid deployment of renewables such as wind and solar, coupled with China's prominent scaling of nuclear energy, has certainly increased non-fossil fuel energy generation. While nuclear energy holds immense promise, its high costs and relatively long construction timelines pose significant challenges to scaling fission, and nuclear fusion still requires major breakthroughs. The next two decades will be crucial for achieving these breakthroughs as we approach the peak of Hubbert's Curve. If commercial fusion is achieved, a constant, mini sun-like energy source would become available to us, explaining the likely plateauing of nuclear in Figure 1, as envisioned by Hubbert.
The current enthusiasm surrounding wind and solar expansion masks a crucial fact: renewables are currently supplementing the global energy mix, not substituting for fossil fuels. As of 2022, renewables contributed to only 13% of the global final energy consumption. This continued reliance on fossil fuels underscores our challenge in slowing our ascent on Hubbert's Curve. Expanding renewable capacity is necessary, but not sufficient to slow our progress along the curve.
It is also vital to recognise that decarbonisation through renewables and energy storage will necessitate "re-materialisation"—the extraction of metals, rare earth elements, and critical minerals required for this transition. Paradoxically, fossil fuels are needed for this very re-materialisation. Therefore, slowing our ascent on the curve requires not only supply-side solutions but also significant demand-side cooperation.
Responsible energy consumption
Currently, the West disproportionately focuses on the supply side of energy, neglecting the crucial demand side. Politically, addressing energy demand is unpopular, and materially, it's inconvenient, as reducing per capita energy consumption necessitates lifestyle changes. Yet, demand-side energy regulation is more important than supply-side generation, a point frequently overlooked.
Currently, the West disproportionately focuses on the supply side of energy, while neglecting the crucial demand side. Politically, addressing energy demand is unpopular, and materially, it is inconvenient, as reducing per capita energy consumption necessitates lifestyle changes. Yet demand-side energy regulation is more important than supply-side generation, a point that is frequently overlooked.
A significant portion of fossil fuels is currently diverted to conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine wars) or consumed by the ultra-high net worth individuals (UHNIs) to fuel their extravagant lifestyles. The "drill, baby, drill" energy policy, championed by the Trump administration, demonstrates a blatant disregard for Hubbert's Curve. Far-fetched endeavours, such as Mars exploration—with their considerable energy footprint—become questionable when viewed through this lens, despite being framed as preparation for a low-probability asteroid collision. Similarly, the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) raises concerns, given the immense energy demands of data centers.
On a bright side, the post-growth movement is slowly gaining traction, offering hope for demand-side solutions. One of the tenets of this movement is capping the wealth of UHNIs, as wealth and energy consumption are positively and exponentially correlated. This measure, while seemingly unrealistic today, is crucial for slowing our ascent on the energy curve and enabling wealth redistribution towards a more egalitarian world.
The West often deflects blame for climate change onto developing nations, urging them to reduce their populations and, consequently, their total emissions. While both per capita energy consumption and population growth contribute to climate change, it is the former that plays a more significant role. A 2020 research paper, using energy modelling, demonstrated that with advances in energy technologies and a global reduction in energy demand to sufficiency levels (assuming no energy inequality), a population of 10 billion could be comfortably supported by 2050. This study underscores the untapped potential of demand-side regulation and affirms that lowering per capita energy use can, in fact, support a larger global population. It also echoes Mahatma Gandhi’s timeless words: “Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's needs, but not every man's greed.”
At the same time, this insight should not be misconstrued as an argument for increasing population. Rather, it highlights the importance of equitable and efficient energy use.
Ultimately, demand-side energy regulation must be implemented, either voluntarily by individuals or through government incentive mechanisms, to respect and align with the geological reality of Hubbert's Curve.
Net-zero emissions and Hubbert's curve
As we move towards reducing emissions globally towards net-zero it is important to understand the implication of reaching net zero in the coming decades in the context of Hubbert's curve. This is a best-case scenario, which is highly unlikely, is captured well in the illustration below (From Tom Murphy's book: Energy and Human ambitions on a finite planet).
Even if we aggressively phase out of fossil fuels in the coming decades and slope down rapidly on the Hubbert's curve to reach net zero emissions, causing flattening of the CO2 emissions in the atmosphere, we are still going to see global temperature increase of over 2° C from pre-industrial levels. We are going to soon exceed 1.5° C but this illustration shows exceeding 2° C is inevitable. Time to brace for more extreme climate events and chaos coming our way.
PS: If you want to explore more on this topic, I recommend reading Stuart Mcmillen's explainer comic ‘Peak Oil’.
This article has been edited by Anjaly Raj.
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